Primary Math



I guess we all like to fool around with things like numbers.



I thought it would be neat to try to calculate what would be the outcome of continued antagonisms by the democratic contenders spread out through the last Primary.



So, I tried to work up an equation that removed subjectivity and replaced it with constants and variables which sound so much more benign.



You know how these things work, trial and error.



First of all, I figured that we needed an expression that expressed the attacks by each. I call them OA for Obama attacks; and OH for Hillary attacks.



Then I assumed that the longer they went on, the more deleterious affect they would have on the results which would be measured by Voter Perceptions, so I set up VP as voter perceptions.



There would be a negative correlation. In effect, the more the outbreaks, the less the Voter Perceptions of the candidates which would then be also inversely proportional to what happens in the McCain Camp.



So, for starters I tried to set up some kind of mathematic equation that might express this.



I said that it was logical if VP=TOA plus TOH divided by “N” (TOAxTOH).



N would represent the number of weeks the squabbles went on.



And, thusly, there would be an inverse relationship that as the number of squabbles per week increased, the formula would result in a reduced VP.







This is not a formulae that posits a positive outcome for such displays and their cumulative impact on the Democratic Party….for the VP inversely correlates with the standing of McCain. Consequently, as the VP decreases for democrats, the result for Republicans rises.



Thusly, and quantitatively, the only long term effect of such adversity, is to magnify democratic “foot-shooting” abilities.



Wake up, Democrats.



The Election was ours to lose and we are doing our best to do precisely that even though my hypothesis hasn’t been fully and reliably tested, the mathematics can’t be too far off.



In any event, the calculus of the primaries seems to indicate that even if we remove subjectivity, if these "outbreaks" continue much longer, the voter will be redoing his own math come election time..



In my own defense, I probably should plugged in some additional variables to compensate for the fudge factor but overall one thing is clear: Hillary and Obama better lose their friends and mates til November.







Les Aaron



THE COMMITTEE FOR POSITIVE CHANGE



Check our website Blog; http://www.lesaaron.blogspot.com