Tuesday, March 18, 2008


Broken Government and its Implications….






Again, it’s those little informal polls that provide some rare insights.



This time, I think I’m onto something big.



I am extrapolating from a very small base but check this out and see if your experience supports it….



One, there is virtually no question that all the polls support the fact that the citizens are fed up. That they are angry about the war; they are angry about the cost of oil; the cost of education; health care; the rising cost of food; the escalation in home mortgages; the fact that you need either one person working two jobs or two people working one job to keep food on the table and the bills paid.



The are angry because they have exhausted their credit card debt and there is no more equity in their homes….



They are angry because they believe that Hispanics are taking their jobs or they’re being shipped overseas….



And some people are just angry and don’t understand why.



That’s why they want change.



They want family medical coverage, lower costs for fuel, less dependency on foreign oil, less expensive food, lower rates on their mortgages and bigger tuition loans among other things.



Here’s where I’m putting two and two together:



They see Obama as an outlet for their anger and see him as the Deux Ex Machina who will be able to make it happen.



He is the safety valve for their pent up frustrations.



That’s why the statistics that are hard to understand because Obama has been able to do things statistically that few of us have ever seen before.



He is able to sweep up Independents, get “cross-overs,” and woe democrats who haven’t voted before—bringing tens of percentage points of new voters into the process….



What happens if Obama gets blocked; that he is unable to deliver the election?



Will this segment of the Electorate simply disappear?



I don’t think so.



Moreover, it isn’t clear that Hillary is able to address the same needs.



It isn’t clear that she can have the same impact on this growing segment of the voting public—the Independents, the new voters, the “cross-overs.”



It isn’t clear that they see her as part of the “solution.”



Nobody up until now, has said what that means.



If Obama is denied the vote, and there is nobody to calm the concerns of so many voters, that it will not end there; that voters will respond at last. Their frustrations cannot stay bottled up forever.



One thing seems clear, the democratic party will change.



Fat cat democrats will have reason to worry.



Democrats who sit on their haunches and don’t do anything will be among the first to go.



And it is very likely that we will see a new party altogether representing all of these repressed interests that are not satisfied.



And it may go way beyond that.



In the last few weeks, everyone I have talked to see government as broken.



And they don’t find the solution in Hillary, with her high negatives, ambiguous answers support for NAFTA, ambiguous immigration policy, job export policies and more.



And they certainly don’t see the solution with John McCain.



With nobody to represent them and conditions in the economy not likely to be resolved, there’s a very good chance that America will start acting like France or Belgium.



There is a watershed coming….



And nobody seems to see it.



Les Aaron

The Armchair Curmudgeon



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