Are We Watching the Wrong Store?

While Congress and the President are focused like a laser on what’s happening in Baghdad, the irony is that it is not Baghdad or even Iraq that we should be studying.

What? You say

Here’s my rationale: The fact of the matter is that while we are assuming that what happens in Baghdad will decide what’s happening overall in Iraq, like an inductive experiment, it could be just the reverse of what we think.

From where I stand, it may be what happens in the region will be the barometer of what is going to happen in Baghdad and not vice versa.

Here’s why I say what I do: We are already witnessing the beginning of a melt-down that’s spreading across the Middle East--from as far West as Egypt to Iran in the East.

There is now sufficient hard evidence to suggest that the Syrian and Iranian governments are conspiring to influence change inside Iraq but also Palestine and Lebanon.

On the balance sheet, it looks as if it may wind up with Iran and Syria positioned against Jordan and the Saudis. If that should happen—and there are signs that it is already in motion if you consider the state of Lebanon and the threat to the government from the Islamists and the Iranian backed Hamas in the Gaza, we realize that we need to pull back and take a broader view. It may in fact be a case of watching the wrong tinderbox; nonetheless, should that occur, we will undoubtedly side with the Sunnis especially with the Saudis. It is hardly a secret that we have had a marriage of convenience with the Saudis. It is also no secret that the Saudis are funneling some of their oil profits made on US gas guzzlers back to bin Laden,

. But backing the Saudis may be bad for the Saudis and bad for America because it will definitely position America as pro-Sunni and anti-Shia’—an untenable posituon for a country seeking to bring peace to a tormented land.

In many respects, this is reminiscent of the many polarities that existed in the Balkans
When the West came to the aid of Bosnia against the militancy of Serbia where Islamists and Christians had lived peacefully side by side for generations only to tear at each others throats when Belgrade called the shots.

Similar old animosities have now resurfaced between Sunni and Shia’ and we have only served to aggravate Middle Eastern feelings in our misguided effort to impose democracy on everyone. Like the Christian missionaries of old, it might have been smarter to keep our proselytizing to ourselves.

Les Aaron
The Armchair Curmudgeon