"Is Douglas Wilder Prescient?"


What Douglas Wilder, the former governor of Virginia, said today would not have been whispered to six months ago.

It shows the regrettable depth of feeling and shift in support for the Clinton campaign as a direct result of the words of Bill Clinton during his role in the South Carolina primary and, in it, there is a valuable lesson for all democrats.

The winds of change have shifted.

Douglas Wilder has aggressively spoken out about the “first black president,” arguing that he has reduced the primaries largely to a question of racial politics.

Clearly, Douglas Wilder is at the extreme point of view; but other black Clinton loyalists are also uneasy about their continuing support of Clinton in view of his words.

There is no doubt here which there should be because of the Clinton’s long support of minorities on racial issues.

Nonetheless, Clinton’s words had a punishing effect that has helped erode dozens of years of support

Douglas Wilder’s comments are only the latest in what appears to be the potential for a Watershed for the Democratic Party.

If we follow the likely course of the rest of the Primaries, neither candidate can emerge by themselves with enough votes to win the nomination.

Therefore, it is likely that the Party will be left with very few cards in its hands to prevent the possibility of a disaster at the Convention.

One, is the likelihood that Michigan and Florida will come into play again.

If that’s the case, the challenge will be in deciding fairly who should receive the votes. As of now, there are various options on the table—from splitting the votes to having a caucus to decide who the winner should be. This runs counter to Hillary Clinton’s wishes since she had won the unofficial primary in both states.

The second possibility is that the Super delegates will vote their interests and preference instead of going along with the popular vote. If that should happen, we will find the depths of each candidate’s support is masked by growing rancour that can only pour out if the Super Delegates do not support the popular vote. This will make the eventual candidate task of winning substantially harder.

Nor are the Republicans likely to let us forget our missteps.

The third possibility is that John Edwards will decide for one of the remaining two and tilt the election in their favor.

With both sides building up their animosities, there is a very real chance that if the people vote one way and the Super Delegates another, this may become a Convention marred by disunity and discord which would further isolate Democrats, discourage cross-over voting and the support of Independents and help build momentum for McCain.

In the end, the disunity being seen in the Republican camp may evanesce if the conservatives manage to gather their disparate ends for the sake of Party unity and that they will present a Party united against the Democrats.

Right now, the close tallies, well within the margins of error for the most part, indicate that the Democratic landslide predicted may evaporate if accord is not reached during the Convention. If that doesn’t happen, be prepared for anything.

Les Aaron
The Committee for Positive Change