Be Wary of "Slam-Dunks!"

News & Views
The Armchair Curmudgeon
March 19, 2007
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Be Wary of “Slam-Dunks!”

When I ask my friends what worries them most politically, most of them come back with a litany of answers ranging from the never ending Iraqi war and the mistaken policy of challenging the Iranians to complicating and bedeviling issues like the economy, the environment, health care and the status of American prestige through the rest of the world. There is no shortage of concerns that bear down on us, it seems, this election..

In short, American voters, by and large, tend to worry about both things they can do and things they can’t. B ut if punditry is as much a virtue as a vice, perhaps the most damning concern facing the democrats next year may be their own belief that they cannot lose.

What reinforces these concerns are the polls. As of now, looking at the polls, and one recently conductd by the NY Times, it is clear that while most republicans are unhappy with their own party and a majority believe that democrats will win this election; the opposite stands true for democrats. Among democrats, the feeling of 6 out of 10 democrats is that they are satisfied with their party and its candidates. Moreover, most believe that the republicans have only a 12% chance of winning the next election.
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What worries me most is that these polls may be a barometer of democratic apathy that is rooted in the conviction that this is a “democratic year;” that there is no possibility that the republicans can win again given the present challenges facing America!....

But that view connotes perhaps too much self confidence and a certain level of arrogance.

Democrats seem to win only when they are motivated and can get out the vote. To assume that the republicans are not going to come out of the gate in a feeding frenzy means a willingness to ignore the historical record. As we’ve seen before, democrats usually pay the price for being counter-intuitive.

But there is no doubt that despite their intentions, democrats have had trouble finding their center and articulating their core arguments—the reasons, per se, that the voters empowered them in the first place. In some respects, they have even painted a picture that at this time looks more discordant than an effective counter-balance to the republicans might suggest; this despite the fact that the “opposition party” has been bloodied repeatedly by bad decisions and what appears to be disunity even within their own ranks.

It would be a serious mistake to presume that democrats are automatically going to carry the day in 08.

It would also be unwise to underestimate the ability of the Republicans to take advantage of every democratic weakness in order to promote their perceived strengths. . For example, even now, some are suggesting that if America doesn’t win in Iraq, the fault will rest with the democrats for denying support to the president and his generals.

In view of what many of us agree will be a hard-fought election, Democrats should at this point be mobilizing their cadres to start spreading the word that an all out effort would not only be nice but essential if we hope to win in 08. .

It is already being suggested with the early primaries coming up in January, that the new candidate may be decided before the end of the first month of the new year. If that’s the case, the democrats can ill afford to sit on their proverbial laurels and expect to catch the gold ring at the same time. Democrats have to show that they possess the moxie to want to win. And that turn of mind, by itself, barring any surprises such as an attack on Iran, may rule the day.

Les Aaron
The Armchair Curmudgeon
www.lesaaron.blogspot.com
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