Democratic Fortunes Change As Midterms Near...

Thank you, Claudette Kanola for your valued input. This article is from the Washington Post.... http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/03/the_friday_house_line_double_y_1.html#moreThe Friday Line: Dems Hold Edge in Top 20 House RacesDemocrats are growing increasingly confident of their chances of making major gains in the House in this year's elections -- and perhaps even seizing control of the chamber. Republicans privately acknowledge that they are likely to lose seats but believe they will remain the majority party at the start of the 110th Congress.In order to show Fix readers a broader snapshot of the seats at the epicenter of the midterm elections fight, the Friday House Line is expanding from ten to 20 races. In the interests of space (and The Fix's sanity), the analyses will be shorter. But by mid-next week we should have all of the races on washingtonpost.com's interactive campaign 2006 map, so be sure to check back for more information on the top races.Democrats have a decided advantage in the expanded Friday Line, as only five current Democratic seats crack the top 20, compared to 15 GOP-held seats. Seven of the 20 seats are currently open, with only two of those are now held by Democrats.Criticisms and kudos are welcome in the comments section below. Remember: The no. 1 race is the most likely to change parties in November.To the Line!20. Georgia's 8th District: Republicans secured a strong recruit in former Rep. Mac Collins and insist he "gets it" after a disastrous Senate bid in 2004. The recent departure of Collins's campaign manager gives The Fix pause, however, as does the fact that incumbent Jim Marshall (D) is a savvy member of Congress. Witness his vote rating (as calculated by National Journal magazine) during 2005: Marshall is near the center of the entire House in terms of ideological voting. Note that Marshall currently represents Georgia's 3rd District; a GOP-led redistricting left him running in the 8th this year. (Previous ranking: N/A)19. New York's 24th District: Rep. Sherwood Boehlert's (R) recent decision to retire after twelve terms sets off a competitive race in an Upstate seat that President Bush narrowly won in 2004 (with 53 percent of the vote). Republicans quickly coalesced around state Sen. Raymond Meier as their preferred candidate. Democrats are trying to do the same for Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri. (Previous ranking: N/A)18. Vermont At-Large: Yes, we know that John Kerry won Vermont by 20 points in 2004 and that Rep. Bernie Sanders, a Socialist who caucuses with House Democrats, appears to be running away with the state's open Senate seat. BUT ... Republicans are extremely high on their candidate -- Vermont National Guard Major General Martha Rainville. Regardless of Rainville's candidate skills, she faces a tough road, especially since state Rep. David Zuckerman, a Progressive, decided against running. In past Vermont elections, the Progressive Party has drained votes from the Democratic nominee. State Sen. Peter Welch is the likely Democratic nominee. (Previous ranking: N/A)17. Illinois's 6th District: Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth's narrow win in the March 21 primary raises Democrats' chances of competing in this Republican-leaning open seat where President Bush received 53 percent of the vote last election. The national party's decision to weigh in on Duckworth's behalf has caused a rift with Christine Cegelis -- the second place finisher in the primary and the party's nominee in 2004. Cegelis has refused to endorse her primary opponent, although national strategists insist most of her supporters are already backing Duckworth. State Sen. Peter Roskam is the GOP nominee. (Previous ranking: N/A)16. Texas's 17th District: Rep. Chet Edwards was the only Democrat targeted by the 2003 Republican redistricting plan to win at the ballot box in 2004, but Edwards is a marked man again in 2006. National Republicans got their preferred candidate in the state's March 7 primary when Iraq war veteran Van Taylor emerged victorious. Taylor's military background and personal wealth (he spent $475,000 of his own money in the primary) make him an attractive candidate. But Edwards has deep roots in the district (a contrast to the newcomer Taylor) and has shown he knows how to win tough elections in a district that gave President Bush 70 percent of the vote in 2004. (Previous ranking: N/A)15. Connecticut's 4th District: In one of several rematches on the Friday Line, former Westport First Selectwoman Dianne Farrell is challenging Rep. Chris Shays (R). Democrats believe that the national atmospherics will be enough to push Farrell from the 48 percent she got in 2004 to a win this November. Shays is paying much more attention this time around, however. Looking for evidence? He was one of six Republicans to vote with Democrats on a resolution Thursday calling for an immediate ethics investigation into members with ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. (Previous ranking: N/A)14. Kentucky's 4th District: The last time we did a House Line, former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) had just jumped into the race and his campaign immediately released a poll showing him with a ten-point edge over freshman Rep. Geoff Davis (R). While Democrats are right to be optimistic about their chances here, this is a very conservative district and Lucas is now the challenger, not the incumbent. (Previous ranking: 8)13. Connecticut's 2nd District: If the national political environment alone will defeat a single Republican incumbent, Rep. Rob Simmons could be the one. He has compiled a moderate voting record since ousting longtime Democratic Rep. Sam Gejdenson in 2000 and was able to save the Groton submarine base after it was initially targeted to be shuttered by the Pentagon. Even so, this is a strongly Democratic district that may decide Simmons needs to go simply because he has an "R" after his name. Former state representative - and 2002 nominee - Joe Courtney (D) could be in the right place at the right time. (Previous ranking: N/A)12. Florida's 22nd District: We've been wary about this race for one main reason -- Elaine Bloom. For those Fix readers who don't know the name, Bloom was the Democrats' nominee in 2000 against Rep. Clay Shaw (R). A state representative, Bloom raised better than $2 million and, in this heavily Jewish district, benefited from the presence of Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman on the national Democratic ticket. In spite of those big advantages, she came up short against Shaw -- albeit it narrowly (losing by just 599 votes). A Republican-led redistricting in 2001 removed the most Democratic areas of the district, and Shaw has won easily since. State Sen. Ron Klein (D) is a top-notch candidate, however, and Shaw's medical problems (he is battling lung cancer) leave open the possibility he will not run again. (Previous ranking: N/A)11. New Mexico's 1st District: Rep. Heather Wilson (R) has withstood Democrats' slings and arrows since winning this seat in a 1998 special election, but she faces her most difficult race yet in November. State Attorney General Patricia Madrid is a star Democratic recruit and is likely to benefit from the tilt of the national playing field toward her party in a district that gave Kerry 51 percent in 2004. Wilson will raise millions of dollars and run a strong campaign -- just like she has done in each of her reelection races. But it may not be enough this time around. (Previous ranking: N/A)10. Illinois's 8th District: Investment banker David McSweeney's victory in the March 21 Republican primary could hamper Republican chances here. While the district leans toward Republicans (Bush took 56 percent here in 2004), incumbent Rep. Melissa Bean is likely to once again peel off moderate women who, though they tend to favor the GOP in presidential and statewide races, are open to the right pitch from a Democrat,. McSweeney's personal wealth makes him a legitimate candidate, and Bean must show she can win a race that is a referendum on her time in Congress, not that of her opponent -- as in 2004 when she ousted longtime Republican Rep. Phil Crane. (Previous ranking: 9)9. Indiana's 9th District: Another rematch from 2004 as former Rep. Baron Hill (D) tries to reclaim the southern Indiana seat he held for three terms until losing to Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) by 1,425 votes. President Bush won the district with 59 percent that year, and Republicans acknowledge that in a non-presidential year Sodrel would likely have come up just short. The political atmosphere has changed markedly since November 2004, a turnaround that should benefit Hill. (Previous ranking: N/A)8. Pennsylvania's 6th District: The third -- and final -- 2004 rematch on the Line features attorney Lois Murphy (D) taking on Rep. Jim Gerlach (R). Given the Democratic lean of this southeastern Pennsylvania seat, we may have been underestimating Murphy's chances in recent Lines. Gerlach is clearly worried (he, like Shays, voted with Democrats to begin an immediate ethics investigation on members with ties to Abramoff) and has yet to really set down roots in the district, as shown by Gerlach's winning margins -- 51 percent in 2002 and 2004. Murphy should benefit if there is a Democratic wind blowing nationally. (Previous ranking: 10)7. Indiana's 8th District: Little new to report here. Rep. John Hostettler (R) seems content to run his normal, unorthodox race (no national political consultants, little focus on fundraising). Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) looks like the right fit for this conservative southern Indiana district. Analysts have been predicting Hostettler's demise for years. Are they finally right? (Previous ranking: 7)6. Texas's 22nd District: How should we read Rep. Tom DeLay's recent primary victory? On the one hand, he avoided a potentially dangerous runoff by winning 62 percent of the vote. On the other, roughly one-in-four Republican primary voters chose someone other than DeLay, despite the fact that none of the other three candidates were able to raise and spend any considerable sums. We tend to see the primary results as a sign of trouble but are loathe to count out a politician as savvy as DeLay. Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) has used his congressional connections to raise scads of money, but his time in the House will be mined for evidence of liberalism by Republicans. Add to the mix former Republican Rep. Steve Stockman, who is seeking to run as an Independent, and you have the most intriguing House race in the country. (Previous ranking: 6)5. Ohio's 18th District: The sentencing this week of lobbyist Jack Abramoff reminded us just how hard it will be for Rep. Bob Ney (R) to win reelection this fall. Despite his assertions to the contrary, Ney appears to be deep in the Abramoff scandal. Ney has pledged to stay in the race whether or not he is indicted, but should that come to pass he would be under enormous political pressure from national Republicans to vacate the seat. Democrats favor Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer as their candidate, but he faces a May 2 primary. (Previous ranking: 5)4. Arizona's 8th District: Rep. Jim Kolbe's (R) retirement and the subsequent candidacy of former state Rep. Randy Graf (R) make this seat a prime pick-up opportunity for Democrats. Kolbe, who beat back a primary challenge from Graf in 2004, insists that his former opponent is too conservative for this southern Arizona seat, which Bush carried by seven points in 2004. Two leading moderates have entered the Republican primary, but it's not clear that they can defeat Graf who is hoping to ride his ardent opposition to illegal immigration to a primary victory. The Democratic race is between former television anchor Patty Weiss and former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords. (Previous ranking: 4)3. Iowa's 1st District: This is the quietest top-tier race in the country. Four Democrats and three Republicans are vying for their party's nomination in June, but there has been almost no back-and-forth between the campaigns as of yet. Attorney Bruce Braley's status as the Democratic frontrunner was cemented when he secured the backing of the Iowa Federation of Labor. The Republican race seems likely to come down to state Rep. Bill Dix and wealthy businessman Mike Whalen. The Democratic nominee will have an edge in this eastern Iowa seat; Kerry carried it by seven points in 2004. (Previous ranking: 3)2. Ohio's 6th District: As expected, national Republicans are going all out to keep state Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) off the ballot this November following the Democrat's inability to secure the 50 signatures necessary to qualify for the May 2 primary ballot. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent $90,000 on an ad this week detailing Wilson's role in raw sewage being dumped into the Ohio River. Wilson is responding with an ad in which he casts himself as an opponent of President Bush and Ohio Gov. Bob Taft and urges viewers to reject "Republican distortions." Wilson's campaign is also sponsoring an automated call into the district by current Rep. Ted Strickland, who is running for governor, in which Strickland decries the GOP ads. This is still a sticky wicket for Democrats as they must educate voters to write in Wilson's name on the primary ballot. If he becomes the Democratic nominee, this race would likely drop a few slots on the line. State Rep. Chuck Blasdel is the likely Republican nominee. (Previous ranking: 2)1. Colorado's 7th District: This suburban Denver seat retains its no. 1 ranking. Colorado was one of the few bright spots for Democrats in the last election, as they won an open Senate seat and an open House seat. Any momentum for Democrats is sure to carry over in the 7th District, which was drawn as a swing seat in the 2001 redistricting process. Kerry won it with 51 percent in 2004, and many Republicans believe privately that Rep. Bob Beauprez (R), who is vacating the seat to run for governor, is the only GOPer who could have held the seat. Democrats will have an August primary between former state Sen. Ed Perlmutter and former state Rep. Peggy Lamm. Republicans have aligned behind Rick O'Donnell, former deputy chief of staff to Gov. Bill Owens (R). (Previous ranking: 1)