Middle East Update

Between Iraq and a Hard Place…

Day by day, it seems as if the situation between Iran and the rest of the Western World is deteriorating. And while most of us tend to look at the building crisis in kind of an objective isolation, a more enlightened outlook that takes into account history and geopolitics might be more instructive.

Right now, the newly elected president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
someone who is regularly accused of being a hick and a buffoon, is doing a pretty good job of stirring the pot. Moreover, he keeps the focus on Israel as the real or imagined threat.

Whether his paranoia is justified is quite another thing.

Certainly, Israel is not about to forget that Iran has been a supporter of terrorism in the middle east. In their camp, the Western powers for reasons of their own have been in pretty solid agreement about not wanting Iran to go ahead and start processing enriched materials which could be a prelude to building the bomb.

Most experts seem to think that Iran may be less than a year away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon. Others feel that it will take them four or five years!

Either way, the West is in agreement that Iran cannot proceed and will, if necessary, bring up the methods at its disposal to discourage Iran from pursuing this course ranging from restricting trade to strategies that will impact their financial negotiations with the west. . To further complicate matters, Israel, despite its low profile, will not tolerate Iran developing nuclear weaponry that could be used against them…

Just today the London Observer reported that the Iranian president said that if they are attacked, they will attack back from ships positioned within 1,300 miles of Israel, the maximum range of the Iranian missiles.

Therefore, the threat level ratchets up a notch.

In some respects, this is beginning to look like a middle eastern game of ‘chicken’ but with grave overtones for all sides.

It pays to consider the playing field here. Iran is said to be buying from both China and North Korea. This would tend to position them against India and towards Pakistan.
Pakistan has its own nuclear capability and it has been accused in the past of working with dissident countries seeking their own nuclear weaponry.

Russia, in the meantime, is trying to work with Iran suggesting that they would help them with peaceful nuclear fission to produce energy as the Iranians claim to be interested in.
However, if China steps up its involvement which could see all of South Asia going on an emergency War footing. Beyond geographical considerations, there is the religious perspective pitting the Islamic nation of Iran against Israel and the Christian west.
Islamic in this case focuses on the majority party of Shiites who are it is said already maneuvering to influence the future course of Iraq.

Either way, the impact could easily extend beyond the subject country and change the balance of power in the region. Clearly, the outcome as of now is far from clear.

The mystery card here is Israel who has said very little and mostly keeps a low profile in the conflict between East and West. Iran, mistrustful of the West, knows that the West in the past has spoken out of both sides of its mouth and triggered the changes that led to the Shah and the ouster of Moussadegh. They have not forgotten how their country figured in those oil negotiations in the 1950’s that have led to today’s polarization.

Iran, three times the size of Iraq with three times the population represents a real challenge to peace in the world at this time. Unfortunately, England and the US do not have much good will left with the Iranians to negotiate a peaceful solution that will satisfy all parties. And in the end, it may be that despite the West’s saber rattling Iran may choose to ignore it all and go ahead counting on its oil wealth to defuse and separate its enemies…

Les Aaron
www.lesaaron.blogspot.com

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