"Reagan Vs. Bush Second Term..."

As we watch Bush plummet in the polls, we might be tempted to think back to the same time in Reagan's administration when it looked as if Reagan's popularity was ebbing and that the second term was going to be more of the same with no way out.

We might look back and find the experience instructive. As it turned out, Reagan used the opportunity to clean house, add new staffers with new ideas and actually come out of the second term with some positive advances including the end of the Cold War! Was that luck, insight or simply good advice? And, if so, could that happen in this administration?

Yes, it could but we'd have to pay attention to the guideposts and take a look back at the patterns this government has formed.

If you listened to the speech on Veteran's day, you heard more of the old tired rhetoric; absolutely nothing had changed. The old ideas and the thoughts that triggered the War against Iraq were mainly in place and Bush was still pushing those tired old cliches about protecting our country against terrorism as he had four years before. In total, there were no surprises making this one of the most predictable governments on record...
It is virtually impossible for change to take place in a kind of stasis where the need for change is not admitted even to one's self. Not to have moved one iota off position in three years shows someone whose intellect is malformed, calcified or incapable of handling the job he was appointed to...
Increasingly, this is becoming evident to other powers, including our allies, around the world. Even the British prime minister is beginning to pay the price for his support of Bush over the Iraq War years.

From what we have seen, this rigid unformed quality is not an asset but a leading liability. In his cowboy thought processes, the man assumes a position based on what he would like to see regardless of whether there is sufficient proof to justify his position, and then sticks to it come Hell or high water as what he thinks is a sign of his strength of character.

But no longer are people satisfied with rigidity as the hailing characteristic of one's character. In point of fact what he believes stands for his character, other's perceive as inflexibility, intransigence and almost a kind of doltish fixation on a position. In this light, such a hard stance is not an enviable position but an example that perhaps the facts have passed you by...or that you are not up to the task of handling an environment that changes faster than you can blink!

As we have seen, even when presented with new information, our appointed leader tends to dig in his heels and attack anyone who questions his entrenched position as being fundamentally unpatriotic or lacking in values.

Can he, however, despite all of the baggage be made to change in the light of a failing administration? It does not seem likely.

Bush and Rove are virtually interdependent; each trusts the other with Rove wielding more power and influence than any other presidential adviser in memory. If Rove is forced out of government by events or an indictment, Bush will be hard-pressed to do anything other than try to hold the line.


Why do I say that? Bush over the years of his governance has failed to relate to anyone else as an adviser. He is cynical, stuck in gear and untrusting of most people. He is not open to ideas; he is fundamentally opposed to change from those few dogmatic beliefs he has and he has very little interest in the fine points of leadership. He doesn't like to be bogged down boning up on issues. ANd he had demonstrated that his views are extremely pedestrian never rising to see the multiple shadings of anything. For the most part, he quickly reduces all things to manageable black and white. And while this may make his life easy, it puts him outside of the mainstream of conventional thought.

. While Reagan was enough of a realist to change when necessary and enough of a politician to realize that it was time to change the governing structure, Bush who views Reagan as his icon, is not enough of either to do what is necessary to survive over the next three years.

Therefore, it would seem that we can expect a level of inertia to persist with no new initiatives. Republicans, who recognize that Bush's support is no longer a guarantee of their own survival will start emerging as separate politicians who no longer want to be identified with this extreme right-wing government. So Bush can no longer count on their cohesiveness. And even those of the extreme right are finding fault with Bush's utter disregard for others including even his friends. If the trends continue, Democrats will increasingly feel their oats and demand change and start to stand up and be heard.. And Bush's poll numbers will continue to collapse.

There is only one thing that could change the equation predicated on their past behavior and that is the occurrence of another threat, real or imagined, here in the homeland or at a vital location overseas. otherwise, look forward to more depressing news of the same kind.

As an aside, , we wonder what happened to all those who were so willing to criticize Clinton? We wonder where have the best and the brightest taken refuge over the last six years. They are certainly not on my horizon.

Les Aaron
THE BIG BLUE BLOG
www.lesaaron.blogspot.com