Backing Musharraf may be the worst gamble America
Has ever taken.

Seldom has a predication come true in such a short time. Less than two weeks ago, I predicted that Musharraf’s regime was on a short leash and that the most dangerous place in the world is not Iraq or Iran but Pakistan, some laughed at my remarks.

Well, as anyone can see from the crisis America is facing with one of its few remaining allies these days, Pakistan’s disarray has leaped into the public’s consciousness.
This coming at a time when Iraq seems to be subsiding as the most pressing issue facing the electorate in view of the presidential elections that come due less than one year from today.

Musharraf hopes to quell our ever-rising concerns by talking about new elections at the beginning of the year and the fact that he will give up his dictator’s uniform for civilian clothes then but for now, as he claims, he must enforce peace on his people.

But listening to the propaganda of Musharraf may be the last place to train our ears. The fact of the matter is that if you listen to the whispered conversations making the rounds of the intelligentsia, it seems that the real danger to democracy may be the very fact that civil rights have been compromised for the sake of keeping Musharraf in power.

Secretary of State Rice was on TV trying to play both sides telling America that the State Department is attempting to move Musharraf’s return to a democracy. At the same time, she seemed unwilling to apply the pressure necessary to give her words the traction they need. The fact remains that we have literally poured in enough billions into Pakistan to have educated most of the working poor’s children and change their lives; yet we have failed to see much significant progress in the fight against terrorist forces in the north, or the renewed “Tailibanization” of Waziristan in areas once ruled by the Pashtun.

At this stage of the game what we do know is that Pakistan has a very active extremist faction that would love to bring Musharraf down; but there is no indication that this would speed a return to democracy; in fact, many postulate that it might only accelerate a departure from moderation towards increased violence and chaos. Pakistan seems in fact to be bordering on a the edge of entropy much like Afghanistan but there is a distinct difference. Pakistan is a diverse land with a developed military and the nuclear bomb.

One former high level Pakistani diplomat suggested that we might take a lesson from history and think back at our precipitous actions in installing the Shah to replace the former prime minister whom we edged out of office with claims that he was a “communist” when really his seemingly worst offense was to nationalize BP’s stake in the oil wells of Iran. The Shah and his Savak were a bitter pill for most Iranians and hastened the return of the Ayatollah who mobilized his followers against the West.

According to this diplomat by supporting Musharraf we are obliquely duplicating our mistakes with the Iranians in the early fifties. Does this argument hold up? Yes, and the similarities are clear. If one were to review what happened yesterday, those rounded up by the military tended to be lawyers, judges, and candidates who represented a threat to Musharraf’s rule.

In our own interests, we may want to think twice about continuing to support an unpopular regime at the expense of all other moderates seeking change. We just might wind up with more on our plate than we can handle at this time….

In the meantime, one could only assume that the extremists are gaining credits with the people and strength at Musharraf’s and the west’s expense..

With at least four attempts on Musharraf’s life in the last few years, it is clear that we are only a heartbeat away from a new terrorist enemy with forty to fifty five nuclear weapons at its disposal. That by itself should give every right thinking citizen a case of agita over the long term.

Sadly, Rice and others in this government do not seem to have the imagination or flexibility to change course. Nor is there any debate in Congress or by the candidates to spell out the challenges and the options we face as sure as night follows day.

This is a time for new ideas and new thinking and, yet, none is forthcoming.


Les Aaron