Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Will wishful thinking supplant good science?

We are being lulled into believing that if global warming has any short term impact, it will be to produce a rise of perhaps a foot or so of ocean level. If that were the case, Al Gore’s presentiments were well overblown according to the typical critics.

But that is not the case.

The danger is much more real and imminent than such watered-down views might suggest.

While government tells us that there is evidence on both sides of that argument is the fact is that most of the scientific tracts see this as a very real occurrence that is much more profound than we are being led to believe and. Most agree, the culprit is primarily CO2 produced by emissions that enter the atmosphere.

As Al Gore pointed out, it is sometimes very hard to understand an issue when understanding that issue may adversely affect your income…

The question is really whether the voting public understands the true nature of global warming without the hype and smokescreen that surrounds its objective consideration and the challenges it poses.

What the government has been trying to do is to convince us that temperatures peaks and valleys are normal aberrations and, even at the most extreme, we are only talking about a rise of about one foot in ocean levels worldwide.

The one foot estimate is largely predicated on the melting of glaciers around the world. But the fact remains that the threat is much larger. From accumulated evidence, we are seeing the two largest bodies of ice in the northern and southern hemispheres threatened by melting.

In Antarctica, parts of the western ice shelf have broken off and floated free. This has made it possible for giant ice ridges—where most of the accumulated fresh ice resides—to form pockets that can lead to its breaking up and melting, contributing to a rise in global oceans…. The statistics show patterns similar to what the critics suggest but in the last several decades, a tendency to go in only one direction, up!

To keep things into perspective, bear in mind that the Antarctic is larger than the US and Mexico combined.

And if part of the western shelf collapses into the sea, as it now seems to be prepared to do, our willingness to underestimate the problem may not only prove foolhardy, it may also prove to be a tipping point for hundreds of millions of people.

Another threat is presented by the floating ice of Greenland which is in the process of melting at a higher rate than ever before and is beginning to flow into the Atlantic raising ocean levels and changing its salinity.

If only half of the ice of the Greenland cap melts, which is indicated by rapidly increasing temperatures in the Arctic and if half of the Antarctic ridge collapses, what we will be looking at is not a rise of one foot, but an increase of sixteen feet in the oceans.

Increases in the heating of the oceans caused by retained CO2 can have other disastrous consequences as we are beginning to see now.

Among them, the tendency to see tropical insects and plants moving into northern climes where they can rapidly spread deadly infection and disease where there are no natural defenses.

We are also seeing rising temperatures affecting the food chain and the reefs that are breeding grounds for a range of species. Current rising temperatures are causing the reefs to die off endangering the species they protect.

Moreover, most climatologists explain that the conveyor belt effect caused by the underwater rivers that traverse the globe may tend to be neutralized. These belts of warming waters including the Gulf Stream tend to keep temperatures stable.
They are triggered by cold salty water of heavy density being deposited in the North Atlantic where they sink and start the conveyor belt’s action world-wide.

If the North Atlantic oceans lose their salt content from the flow of the Greenland ice shelf, it will change the density of the conveyor belt and its flow may be interrupted. This has happened before according to the histories drawn from ice cores.

If this is the case, the world may not only be subjected to an increase of sixteen feet in water level, we may also find that we have entered a new ice age.

None of these potential threats are to be taken lightly and the public must be made to understand the cause and effect connection between our actions and our disregard for the environment and their measured effects.

It has also been documented through the study of ice cores, that these changes can occur quite rapidly—actually in as little as ten years!

That doesn’t give us much time to prepare. Nor do we know how far along the present melting process is at this stage or how close we may be to a tipping point that would lead to dramatic change..

Therefore, it would be wise to consider the worst in planning for our futures.

If we act now, we may still be able to reduce the total impact of global warming and bring ourselves back to some form of equilibrium or at least the carbon consumption of twenty or thirty years ago.

But the government’s position is that there are flaws in the arguments. Combine that position with the fact that we are among the two leading nations who have not signed the Kyoto Accords and we, as a result, find little reason for hope. If we are to be saved from this fate at all, it seems that the larger part of the burden must be assumed by we the people.

We need to become mobilized now to take action. And we need to think of our own survival at a time when all others seem to be either ignoring or minimizing the challenge.

If you are prepared to join with us in a letter writing campaign to let our candidates know how we feel and what we are prepared to do, please join our list to fight Global Warming at any cost!

Thank you.

Les Aaron
The Committee for Positive Change

Please pass on this request to all of your friends and neighbors…

A ten dollar minimum contribution will make you a member of our committee and a fifty dollar contribution will move you to our Inner Circle.

Thank you for all that you do!

Les Aaron

Please make checks out to LAACO and direct to Global Warming Committee, 239 Lakeside Drive, Lewes DE 19958.

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