Sleight of Hand As An Instrument of Policy

Sleight of Hand As An Instrument of Policy:



It goes without saying that elected governments are in the long term responsible to their constituencies. Therefore, if they should embrace radicalized policy, they need to be in a position to justify their decisions. This is where things can get sticky.

The nearest analogy I can think of is developing a hypothesis and then justifying it with downstream evidence. What this does is reinforce the basis of your decision which, in effect, reinforces support for your decision. But in practice, the original hypothesis is either borne out or it’s not. If the direction chosen is not reinforced and supported by the downstream data, modifying the orignal hypothesis or going back to the drawing boards to rethink the problem may be the best alternatives. This is the rational, scientific way of proceeding to logically justify a case and, therefore, is the most credible strategy.

Another approach might plunge ahead ignoring the original hypothesis if the downstream data does not support it. This “damn the torpedoes” approach, “full speed ahead,” plays down the factual basis of the hypothesis and suggests that those who institute the policy know what’s in the public interest. This is a hard sell to the voting public and does not always win in the court of public opinion. There is still another approach, a variation on approach number two, that employs a hypothesis that seems to have emerged fully formed out of the desired result.. In other words, the hypothesis is constructed around the result the policy-makers want to achieve. This is where reality frequently gets left behind. If the information gained from experience doesn’t support the hypothesis, the data is either rejected or adjusted to fit the desired outcome regardless of the facts of the case. This is the kind of government that rules by fiat that is dismissive of criticism that we find ourselves stuck with at this critical time in our history.
If anyone doubts that all they need to is re-examine any of the far-reaching policies and programs instituted since this government took office. It does not take hard scrutiny to see this kind of thinking helped carve our policies in everything from economics to our strategies in Iraq.

By shaping the facts to fit the desired result, our government is practicing self-deception on a massive scale and operating largely on a basis that ignores the facts; but what’s even worse, it is extending it’s self deception to the people. And that is the crime!. If we need any proof of it, one could draw a straight line from the contrived arguments used to bring us to War with more than 1,600 dead! There is no clearer delineation that that! And that's after we plunged into war fudging the facts and ignoring the truth in the full knowledge that Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11; nothing to do with terrorism; nothing to do with WMD!....

This habitual mind-set that is in play today is of special concern because it is predicated on an absence of factual data and sets up unrealistic expectations that cannot be fulfilled. It is dangerous because it commits us to programs that in the long term are counter productive and not in keeping with our best interests.

Not only do such actions cause our friends and allies to question our judgment, it makes them wonder how long the US will remain a Super-Power.

Viewed from a different perspective, it appears to the leaders of other countries that perhaps we have lost our way, that Americans cannot see things clearly or that we are in the throes of old-age and creeping senility. And in many respects they are right!.

Signs of this are already evident on the world stage. For example, while we have been subjected to non-stop images of Iraq that are inconsistent with what our leaders would like us to believe, at the same time, our allies have been busy falling all over themselves lining up alliances with China.

Do they perhaps see the future better than our prophets do?

They are aware that we have been running a montly trade deficit in the 60 billion dollar range with most of that being attributable to China’s excess of exports over imports. China watchers are wondering how we can appear to be so sanguine under the circumstances.

Today, we are seeing literally thousands of jobs being transferred to South Asia and China. Entire manufacturing segments have disappeared. And we no longer can even boost a machine tool sector which is the backbone of any manufacturing recovery. Corruption is widespread through even some of our largest companies. And many have relocated their headquarters to tax havens to escape paying their taxes in the US. Yet, no one at Justice or the Executive seems to blink when confronted with this kind of data.

All told, the overall picture is increasingly depressing and eerily shakey. It is the feeling that you are standing on a foundation of sand.. And it’s easy to see why the other world powers shake their collective heads when asked about the US.

Perhaps it is too early to point to our demise as an economic super-power, but the signposts are there and the questions are not being addressed.

How long can we continue to bury our heads in the sand before the truth intrudes depends to a great extent on the honesty and courage of our elected officials. Right now, from the hollow rhetoric we’ve seen and the specious arguments being offered, that does not seem to offer much encouragement.

Les Aaron

The Armchair Curmudgeon

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