The Build-Up To War!

I’ve been told by peer and client alike that I have an uncommon ability to see what’s coming up. I think it is probably do more to an intuitiveness and common sense.
That’s why I am particularly disturbed by this preoccupation with building up the force level in Baghdad as Bush is likely to announce early next week.

Yesterday, on CNBC, a reporter said that the change in missions if this comes to pass, will result in many more our young people dead.

In my own mind, I could not help but wonder, new mission or not, how long Americans will sit still for that.

But there is also a persistent picture that keeps coming back to me and it seems to be shaping up as my own view of the future of a confused Baghdad.

And by the way, a confused situation on the ground to me has always been reflective of a government mired in confusion…. It’s hard not to think of New Orleans for starters.

Anyway, I don’t see a dimunition in violence. In fact, with more troops, there will likely be more clashes and more death—not squirreling off to the “green zone” under the new mission parameters.

Eventually, another Bremer type will point to the fact that this wouldn’t be happening if it weren’t the support the Shiites are getting from Teheran.
The argument will refer to the new bombs or the new technology that is slipping across the border.

This is bound to come up!

Of course, the Iranians will not keep quiet should this occur and the dialogue will heat up.

And that is the opening GWB is looking for to save the party.

After all, what else does he know how to do except bluster and bully…

The worrisome part is that we can go virtually instantaneously onto a war footing with Iran. Our ships are there. They are loaded with missiles. Our planes are on the aircraft carriers and there will be three on site within the next month…And we have submarines loaded with missiles standing by…

Now, all the bully has to do is up the ante because he knows that the people will stick with their Party when push comes to shove and we are neck deep in the muck.
If all else fails, we can always spin the fact that the Iranians are pushing our buttons and “killing American boys and girls”…

Any way you slice it, it would not take much for us to ratchet up the tensions bringing us one step closer to war.

To this paranoid government, fisticuffs are better than dialogue any time; not to mention the behind the scenes shove we will likely get from the military industrial complex that has a very big stake in outcomes.

These boys have been very busy building every kind of weapon of destruction from guns that fire a million rounds a minute to giant bombs that can wipe out anything within 150 yards with precision targeting. 150 yards is like nine city blocks. You figure it out!

In any event, our only hope is Congress and saner minds who can hopefully work to diffuse the rush to bomb the Iranians off the globe.

If such thinking were to go unchallenged, it would be the worst miscalculation of our time.

I hope I am wrong but understanding the players and their modus operandi and the need for something to keep the party together and maintain loyalties, it is hard for me to see another scenario that comes close.

Les Aaron
Hubmaster