More Blowing in the Wind...

Can virtual possession of WMD be worse than the reality?

When it comes to Persia, there is a potential disaster brewing and clearly not many see the signs pointing to a disastrous outcome if we persist in trying to dominate this nation that was old before the north American land mass was even discovered. As in the past, we are blind to the obvious strands, the synapses that are being strengthened as we rave on and as events increasingly loom out of any semblance of control. .

It goes without saying that we need leaders with vision—who can envision the probabilities of bad judgment and who can steer the ship of state around innumerable shoals that are waiting to trip us up on this ill gained venture. We need elder statesman who understand the role of diplomacy, nuance and subtlety but, alas, what we are left with are the dregs, the bottom feeders who have only one play, forward at full speed. Even a mental dullard like a sheep herder can outthink a one play policy. We should realize by now that diplomacy holds very low esteem in this White House and that the agenda, as mapped out, has more to do with the exercise of power than self control.

As a result, we stand on a dangerous brink. Never before has the bar been lowered to this extent where downright aggression becomes the prevailing modus operandi over discussion and compromise tossed aside like so much confetti. . . And who do we have to blame for those who infest our halls of power like sightless maggots? Is it the price we pay for devaluing the importance of politics. With our lowered expectations, we must find a way to bully through; yet not forgetting that we are navigating in quicksand..

For what is regarded as an advanced civilization, we have morphed into nation that seems to have forgotten all of the lessons learned over two hundred years.. Our desired ends check-mates all rational alternatives. . Clearly, we have learned nothing from the past, and, thusly, we are dangerously vulnerable. Unfortunately, when it comes to sizing up the opposition, we have failed to factor into the equation that we are bullying someone with the mentality of a sheep herder—a man who has little experience of a world that stands perilously close to war. Not a good harbinger of things to come.


Now, what are the arrangements any intelligent negotiator or planner might consider. First off, the plans need to consider Russia, China, North Korea and Pakistan. And if you consider those countries as possible contenders and "influentials, " you also have to consider the second tier, India, Europe and Japan who would be affected by any decisions reached by any of the first tier members. See how fast things get complicated.

Okay, what is the likely scenario?

Let’s begin by asking ourselves who does Persia hate?

That’s easy! They hate us and Israel! There is no question about that...and they don't care too much for their Sunni cousins....

If it becomes a sure-thing that Persia is going for the bomb, we know who they are going to target first. And based upon history, we know that Israel is disinclined to wait for that to happen.

Remember, when Iraq got to close to a bomb, Israel put them out of business.

It could just happen again! And if we don’t exercise rational judgment, it will!

But now times have changed. We have invaded Iraq. We have alienated all the factions and turned them against us including the moderates who were once if not on our side at least not predisposed against us. Today, it seems that moderate as well as radical have learned to hate the great pestilence from the west.

And let us not forget the fact that India, China, North Korea, Russia, and Pakistan have nuclear weapons.

If Israel attacks Persia, we are on way to chaos and entropy. All bets are off.

There are but two solutions: The UN and/or their alliance partners.

The first choice, of course, should be the UN.

But our UN representative is reflective of our little interest or involvement in this body. He is an arrogant mercenary who rips down bridges instead of repairing them, a person I wouldn’t trust selling sugar to Cubans much less have represent us in affairs of state. And that is the problem.
the UN is in the best position to influence change; if we don't support the UN, that deliberative body will lose its respect among other nations.. And if it loses its respect, the chances are that a sheep herder will not listen to it either.

The picture has gotten even more complicated over time; the remaining solution becomes discussions and negotiations with Iran’s trading partners. And that will not be easy given our previous record in interfacing with them individually.

Keep in mind that North Korea and Pakistan and China stand shoulder to shoulder against China. And China sits with its forces poised in Tibet ready to make the leap into India on any pretense. Nor are most people aware that India has a very large standing well-equipped army and navy .
And if they were to mobilize or consider launching a weapon against Pakistan for its border incursions in the north, China would become directly involved. All players have WMD.

What would happen to the world then?

Not to mention that that might furnish the excuse for North Korea to lay claim to the South--another tinder box.

In short, just these few scenarios paint a picture of great complexity presided over by a failed oil man who disdains reading and history and a sheep herder who has no grasp of the real world.
Is this a joke being played on us or a kind of bitter irony that we have all earned through equal installments of our deep and abiding disinterest in politics.

In the meantime, the earth shudders anticipating an outcome that we are not prepared for and entropy beckons…

Les Aaron
The Armchair Curmudgeon…