The Gold Index

How do I know what’s going on?

Allow me to let you in on my little secret.
It’s called the AI . And it helps me to know
which way the wind blows.

What is the AI?

It’s what I call the Gold Index…

What it is is the report of pharmacists around the country on sales of the entire antacid category.
Amongst the trend setters, Tums is usually a rather good barometer. I know that if Tums sales are ahead according to the Nielsen survey of pharmacists, I expect that the entire category of antacids will be up.

But how can I use that esoteric information? What good does it do me?

Well, here’s where a little sleight of hand puts you ahead of the curve. You see, the largest consumption of antacids tends to among business people. They are the canaries in the mines of business. If you hear the pop of lids all around America, you know it’s time to start worrying. And if their tabulated usage is up, it means other things are down including the businessman’s morale usually. Bad news tends to trigger the release of excess gas. And if pill popping becomes endemic, it may be time to sell your market “dogs,” or take some other curative action. But you need to act fast because relief may not be a moment away!

Listen up, troopers! Today’s businessman is on the front lines. If he feels uncomfortable and gaseous, there’s a good chance that government’s made him that way.

There also seems to be an inverse relationship between explosive growth in antacids and good news that keeps the marketplace optimistic and winning. The keen observer has to keep an eye on such trends in order to make hay with that information. For example, if
Antacid sales are way up in your field and they have been for a minimum period of two weeks, it is safe to suggest that it may be time to take a vacation in Pago-Pago or hire your brother-in-law to take over. It’s definitely time for you to take a break.

On the other hand, if such sales are down, it may be a good time to reinvest more or take the wife out for a good dinner because low antacid sales are generally good for business people.

In some cases, however, blips on the horizon—such as a rise in the number of alcoholic drinks consumed in private—may signal turmoil to come…These blips generally precede a break out of the antacid category. Therefore, if that were to happen, all bets are off. Call the wife and tell her that you are going out but it’s to Wendy’s not the big fancy steakhouse you talked about earlier.

The trendline here is very subtle and it requires the exercise of extreme caution. By keeping your peeled on the AI and the LCI (Liquor Consumption Index), you may just win the battle and come out ahead in this global struggle to keep one’s head while all the rest are bemoaning the Oil Price Index, the OPI, the one measurement that causes the blip in the LCI and, consequently, the AI reeling out of control!...

Right now, after the president’s speech expect the following trend line…executives start off by shaking their heads uncontrollably. This triggers a release of liquor cabinet doors all over America and this is what the antacid category has been looking for. With their simultaneous release, expect sales to take off in direct proportion to the number of liquor bottles tapped.
This will precipitate bad news that keeps feedom on itself resulting in a kind of stasis that has people begging for relief. But, fear not, there has never been a continuous boom for antacids prior to the Bush presidency. In time, the antacid category will return to normal and people will begin to enjoy life again. Some say that time is coming!
We can’t be sure inasmuch as we’re not believers totally in the pendulum principle but it’s nice to hear. And maybe they know something we don’t which might be cause for celebrating which is long over-due for middle class folks who follow the indexes.

Les Aaron