Putin's Approval Rating Twice That of George Bush!

Putin intent on dispelling old notions

Simon Tisdall
Monday July 10, 2006
The Guardian


The official agenda for this weekend's Group of Eight summit of leading industrial countries in St Petersburg includes action on energy security, global education and disease pandemics. But for the summit's host, President Vladimir Putin, the overriding aim is to confirm post-Soviet Russia's re-emergence as a global player deserving of a place at the top table.
"What Putin really wants is for Russia to be recognised as a power in its own right, not relying or dependent on the US, China or the EU," said Jennifer Moll, a Russia expert with the Risk Advisory Group. "The increasing assertiveness of Russia's foreign policy and the push to join the World Trade Organisation are evidence of this. For Putin, the summit is about dispelling old notions of the G7 plus one. It's about great power status."



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Mr Putin's bullish mood looks justified. Russia's economy has grown annually by an average 6% since 1999. As financial analyst Andrew Rozanov recently pointed out for the Chatham House thinktank, Russia is now the world's 12th largest economy. It has a trade surplus of over $120bn (£65bn), a budget surplus of 7.5% of GDP, and international and domestic reserves in excess of $300bn.
Most of this new-found wealth, and the Kremlin's resulting political confidence, flows from energy exports. Russia is the world's second largest oil producer and has an estimated 65% of global natural gas reserves. Last winter brought a glimpse of what that means when Ukraine's gas supplies were temporarily cut, causing a panic further west. As in the Cold War, Russian tanks are again poised on Europe's borders - but these days the tanks contain oil, not gun crews.

Despite accusations of of anti-democratic tendencies, Mr Putin's personal popularity is unmatched by his G8 guests. His approval rating is roughly twice that of George Bush or Tony Blair. And despite growing NGO and opposition criticism at home, many Russians seem to admire his readiness to challenge US global leadership assumptions.

On North Korea's missiles tests, on Iran's nuclear ambitions, on Hamas's control of the Palestinian Authority, and on Darfur, Mr Putin has consistently blocked or sidestepped US-led moves towards punitive action. On Kosovo, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, his position is often seen as unhelpful. These issues, plus Russia's poor human and civil rights record, could make for an indigestible dinner when he and Mr Bush meet privately on Friday evening. The fact that they are unlikely to be resolved only underscores Moscow's strengthening self-belief.

Yet old, familiar Russian paranoia still makes Moscow a touchy partner. "To be honest, not everyone was ready to see Russia begin to restore its economic health and its position on the international stage so rapidly," Mr Putin said last month. "Some still perceive us through the prism of past prejudices ... and see a strong, reinvigorated Russia as a threat." Nato's eastward expansion is set in this context; so, too, is European reluctance to open downstream energy business to Russian companies.

Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Centre said the US made a strategic mistake in assuming that post-Soviet Russia could be drawn, or tethered, within the west's orbit. "Now it has left that orbit entirely. Russia's leaders have given up on becoming part of the west and have started creating their own Moscow-centred system," he wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine. On issues such as Iran, "Russia will continue essentially to share western goals while opposing western (and especially US) hardline policies".

Mr Putin was not seeking confrontation at the G8 summit or beyond, Ms Moll said. But nor was the meeting likely to achieve a sudden consensus or, indeed, very much at all. "He doesn't want to be seen as an energy hawk threatening other people. He does want to do things his own way," she said. As a result, increasing friction was likely while the Bush administration remained in office. "We need some new thinking in Washington."